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OFTA vs Fovu Club — Elite One 2019

OFTA
OFTA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
5/27/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 21Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

OFTA25%
×Draw25%
Fovu Club50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
1.02
Fovu Club
1.57

Fovu Club creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 67 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.82
Fovu Club
1.06

allows per match

OFTA
2.09
Fovu Club
1.22

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
50%
OFTA or Fovu Club
75%
Draw or Fovu Club
75%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
9%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
64%
OFTA 2+ goals
27%
OFTA 3+ goals
8%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
79%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
46%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
33%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.82 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + OFTA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

OFTA scores more
25%
level
25%
Fovu Club scores more
50%

Fovu Club at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFTA 1 – 1 Fovu Club

OFTA and Fovu Club drew 1-1 in Elite One on May 27, 2022.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.