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OFTA vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

OFTA
OFTA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
5/18/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 17Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

OFTA27%
×Draw26%
Avion Academy47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
1.03
Avion Academy
1.45

Avion Academy creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 67 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.82
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

OFTA
2.09
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
53%
OFTA or Avion Academy
74%
Draw or Avion Academy
73%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
10%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
64%
OFTA 2+ goals
28%
OFTA 3+ goals
9%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
77%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
42%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
36%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.82 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + OFTA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

OFTA scores more
27%
level
26%
Avion Academy scores more
47%

Avion Academy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: OFTA 1–1 Avion Academy

OFTA and Avion Academy drew 1-1 in Elite One on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.