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OFK Vršac vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
3 – 0
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
9/12/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

OFK Vršac70%
×Draw18%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
2.22
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.77

OFK Vršac creates 188% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 19 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
2.19
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.79

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.74
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
2.26

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
88%
OFK Vršac or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
82%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
30%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
46%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
89%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
65%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
38%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
54%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
18%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
86%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 2.19 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.22

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + OFK Vršac defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
70%
level
18%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
12%

OFK Vršac at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFK Vršac vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci

OFK Vršac beat Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.