Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OFK Vršac vs Radnički Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
10/14/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

OFK Vršac56%
×Draw26%
Radnički Novi Beograd18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
1.50
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.72

OFK Vršac creates 108% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 38 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
1.04
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.76

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.68
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.97

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Radnički Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
82%
OFK Vršac or Radnički Novi Beograd
74%
Draw or Radnički Novi Beograd
44%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
29%
Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
78%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
44%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
19%
Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
51%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
16%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
76%
Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.68 · 73 matches

Radnički Novi Beograd away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 1.04 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.50

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.76 + OFK Vršac defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
56%
level
26%
Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
18%

OFK Vršac at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFK Vršac vs Radnički Novi Beograd

OFK Vršac beat Radnički Novi Beograd 2-1 in Prva Liga on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.