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OFK Vršac vs RAD — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RAD
RAD
3/27/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

OFK Vršac51%
×Draw29%
RAD21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
1.31
RAD
0.72

OFK Vršac creates 82% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 37 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
1.04
RAD
0.76

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.68
RAD
1.59

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
79%
OFK Vršac or RAD
71%
Draw or RAD
49%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
24%
RAD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
73%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
38%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
14%
RAD 1+ goals
51%
RAD 2+ goals
16%
RAD 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
71%
RAD (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.68 · 73 matches

RAD away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 1.04 + RAD defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

RAD attack 0.76 + OFK Vršac defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
51%
level
29%
RAD scores more
21%

OFK Vršac at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFK Vršac 0 – 1 RAD

RAD beat OFK Vršac 1-0 in Prva Liga on March 27, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.