Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OFK Vršac vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
4/22/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Round - 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

OFK Vršac35%
×Draw34%
Mladost Novi Sad31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
0.91
Mladost Novi Sad
0.83

OFK Vršac creates 10% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
1.04
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.68
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
69%
OFK Vršac or Mladost Novi Sad
66%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
65%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
13%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
60%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
23%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
6%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
56%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
20%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
53%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.68 · 73 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 1.04 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + OFK Vršac defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
35%
level
34%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
31%

OFK Vršac at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: OFK Vršac 0–0 Mladost Novi Sad

OFK Vršac and Mladost Novi Sad drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on April 22, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.