OFK Vršac 0–0 Macva: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

OFK Vršac

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Macva

11/17/2025

Prva Liga · Round 18Gradski stadion Vrsac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

OFK Vršac45%

×Draw32%

Macva24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFK VršacExpected goals in this matchMacva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.72

OFK Vršac

1.11

Macva

0.72

OFK Vršac creates 54% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 91 away

1.04

creates per match

0.75

0.68

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

OFK Vršac

1.04

Macva

0.75

allows per match

OFK Vršac

0.68

Macva

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Macva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Macva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw

76%

OFK Vršac or Macva

68%

Draw or Macva

55%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+

19%

Macva wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals

67%

OFK Vršac 2+ goals

30%

OFK Vršac 3+ goals

10%

Macva 1+ goals

51%

Macva 2+ goals

16%

Macva 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)

65%

Macva (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.68 · 73 matches

Macva away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 1.04 + Macva defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Macva attack 0.75 + OFK Vršac defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

OFK Vršac scores more

45%

level

32%

Macva scores more

24%

OFK Vršac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff