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OFK Vršac vs FK Becej — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
2 – 1
FK Becej
FK Becej
5/1/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 32Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

OFK Vršac68%
×Draw18%
FK Becej14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
2.34
FK Becej
0.95

OFK Vršac creates 146% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 88 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
2.19
FK Becej
1.16

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.74
FK Becej
2.49

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
86%
OFK Vršac or FK Becej
82%
Draw or FK Becej
32%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
45%
FK Becej wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
90%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
67%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
41%
FK Becej 1+ goals
61%
FK Becej 2+ goals
25%
FK Becej 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
83%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 2.19 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.34

FK Becej attack 1.16 + OFK Vršac defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
68%
level
18%
FK Becej scores more
14%

OFK Vršac at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFK Vršac vs FK Becej

OFK Vršac beat FK Becej 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.