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OFK Vršac vs Bratstvo Prigrevica — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
4/2/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 20Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

OFK Vršac55%
×Draw25%
Bratstvo Prigrevica20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
1.65
Bratstvo Prigrevica
0.90

OFK Vršac creates 83% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
2.19
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.05

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.74
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Bratstvo Prigrevica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
80%
OFK Vršac or Bratstvo Prigrevica
75%
Draw or Bratstvo Prigrevica
45%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
30%
Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
81%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
49%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
23%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
59%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
23%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
73%
Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 2.19 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.05 + OFK Vršac defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
55%
level
25%
Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
20%

OFK Vršac at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: OFK Vršac 1–0 Bratstvo Prigrevica

OFK Vršac beat Bratstvo Prigrevica 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.