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OFK Vršac vs Bačka 1901 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
0 – 1
Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
8/22/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

OFK Vršac62%
×Draw20%
Bačka 190117%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
2.09
Bačka 1901
1.00

OFK Vršac creates 109% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 27 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
2.19
Bačka 1901
1.26

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.74
Bačka 1901
2.00

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Bačka 1901 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
83%
OFK Vršac or Bačka 1901
80%
Draw or Bačka 1901
38%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
39%
Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
88%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
62%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
34%
Bačka 1901 1+ goals
63%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
26%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
78%
Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 2.19 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + OFK Vršac defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
62%
level
20%
Bačka 1901 scores more
17%

OFK Vršac at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: OFK Vršac 0–1 Bačka 1901

Bačka 1901 beat OFK Vršac 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.