OFK Vršac 1–1 1. Maj Ruma: Result & Stats

OFK Vršac

FT

1 – 1

1. Maj Ruma

8/21/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

OFK Vršac62%

×Draw21%

1. Maj Ruma17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFK VršacExpected goals in this match1. Maj Ruma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.90

OFK Vršac

1.96

1. Maj Ruma

0.90

OFK Vršac creates 118% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 72 away

2.19

creates per match

1.06

0.74

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

OFK Vršac

2.19

1. Maj Ruma

1.06

allows per match

OFK Vršac

0.74

1. Maj Ruma

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

1. Maj Ruma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw

83%

OFK Vršac or 1. Maj Ruma

79%

Draw or 1. Maj Ruma

38%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+

37%

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals

86%

OFK Vršac 2+ goals

58%

OFK Vršac 3+ goals

31%

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals

59%

1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals

23%

1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)

79%

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 2.19 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.96

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + OFK Vršac defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

OFK Vršac scores more

62%

level

21%

1. Maj Ruma scores more

17%

OFK Vršac at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff