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OFK Vrbas vs RFK Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

OFK Vrbas
OFK Vrbas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
5/10/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 26Stadion Šlaiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

OFK Vrbas53%
×Draw24%
RFK Novi Sad23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vrbas
1.71
RFK Novi Sad
1.05

OFK Vrbas creates 63% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

OFK Vrbas
1.50
RFK Novi Sad
1.07

allows per match

OFK Vrbas
1.03
RFK Novi Sad
1.93

finishing

OFK Vrbas+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vrbas ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

OFK Vrbas or draw
77%
OFK Vrbas or RFK Novi Sad
76%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
47%

Winning margin

OFK Vrbas wins by 2+
29%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

OFK Vrbas 1+ goals
82%
OFK Vrbas 2+ goals
51%
OFK Vrbas 3+ goals
24%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
65%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
28%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

OFK Vrbas (draw refunded)
69%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vrbas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vrbas attack 1.50 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.07 + OFK Vrbas defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

OFK Vrbas scores more
53%
level
24%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
23%

OFK Vrbas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "OFK Vrbas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFK Vrbas vs RFK Novi Sad

OFK Vrbas beat RFK Novi Sad 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Šlaiz in Vrbas.