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OFK Vrbas vs Podunavac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

OFK Vrbas
OFK Vrbas
FT
2 – 1
Podunavac
Podunavac
8/24/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Stadion Šlaiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

OFK Vrbas43%
×Draw26%
Podunavac30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vrbas
1.41
Podunavac
1.13

OFK Vrbas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

OFK Vrbas
1.50
Podunavac
1.23

allows per match

OFK Vrbas
1.03
Podunavac
1.32

finishing

OFK Vrbas+0.00on par
Podunavac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vrbas ↓

Podunavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

OFK Vrbas or draw
70%
OFK Vrbas or Podunavac
74%
Draw or Podunavac
57%

Winning margin

OFK Vrbas wins by 2+
21%
Podunavac wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

OFK Vrbas 1+ goals
76%
OFK Vrbas 2+ goals
41%
OFK Vrbas 3+ goals
17%
Podunavac 1+ goals
68%
Podunavac 2+ goals
31%
Podunavac 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OFK Vrbas (draw refunded)
59%
Podunavac (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vrbas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Podunavac away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vrbas attack 1.50 + Podunavac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Podunavac attack 1.23 + OFK Vrbas defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

OFK Vrbas scores more
43%
level
26%
Podunavac scores more
30%

OFK Vrbas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "OFK Vrbas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: OFK Vrbas 2–1 Podunavac

OFK Vrbas beat Podunavac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Šlaiz in Vrbas.