OFK Vrbas 2–0 Backa: Result & Stats

OFK Vrbas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Backa

11/8/2025

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Round 13Stadion Šlaiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

OFK Vrbas54%

×Draw25%

Backa21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFK VrbasExpected goals in this matchBacka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.91

OFK Vrbas

1.60

Backa

0.91

OFK Vrbas creates 76% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

1.50

creates per match

0.78

1.03

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

OFK Vrbas

1.50

Backa

0.78

allows per match

OFK Vrbas

1.03

Backa

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFK Vrbas+0.00on par

Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vrbas ↓

Backa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

OFK Vrbas or draw

79%

OFK Vrbas or Backa

75%

Draw or Backa

46%

Winning margin

OFK Vrbas wins by 2+

28%

Backa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

OFK Vrbas 1+ goals

80%

OFK Vrbas 2+ goals

47%

OFK Vrbas 3+ goals

22%

Backa 1+ goals

60%

Backa 2+ goals

23%

Backa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

OFK Vrbas (draw refunded)

71%

Backa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vrbas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vrbas attack 1.50 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Backa attack 0.78 + OFK Vrbas defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

OFK Vrbas scores more

54%

level

25%

Backa scores more

21%

OFK Vrbas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "OFK Vrbas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff