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OFK Levski vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

OFK Levski
OFK Levski
FT
2 – 1
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
5/9/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 30Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

OFK Levski59%
×Draw21%
Parva atomna20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Levski
2.00
Parva atomna
1.06

OFK Levski creates 89% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 47 away

creates per match

OFK Levski
1.43
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

OFK Levski
1.27
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

OFK Levski+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Levski ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

OFK Levski or draw
80%
OFK Levski or Parva atomna
79%
Draw or Parva atomna
41%

Winning margin

OFK Levski wins by 2+
35%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

OFK Levski 1+ goals
86%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
59%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
32%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
65%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
29%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

OFK Levski (draw refunded)
75%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Levski at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Levski attack 1.43 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.00

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + OFK Levski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

OFK Levski scores more
59%
level
21%
Parva atomna scores more
20%

OFK Levski at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "OFK Levski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFK Levski 2 – 1 Parva atomna

OFK Levski beat Parva atomna 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Levski.