OFK Levski 2–1 Botev Lukovit: Result & Stats

OFK Levski

FT

2 – 1

Botev Lukovit

3/10/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 18Gradski stadion (Levski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

OFK Levski52%

×Draw24%

Botev Lukovit23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFK LevskiExpected goals in this matchBotev Lukovit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.04

OFK Levski

1.68

Botev Lukovit

1.04

OFK Levski creates 62% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 15 away

1.43

creates per match

0.80

1.27

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

OFK Levski

1.43

Botev Lukovit

0.80

allows per match

OFK Levski

1.27

Botev Lukovit

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFK Levski+0.00on par

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Levski ↓

Botev Lukovit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

OFK Levski or draw

77%

OFK Levski or Botev Lukovit

76%

Draw or Botev Lukovit

48%

Winning margin

OFK Levski wins by 2+

28%

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

OFK Levski 1+ goals

81%

OFK Levski 2+ goals

50%

OFK Levski 3+ goals

24%

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

65%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

28%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

OFK Levski (draw refunded)

69%

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Levski at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Levski attack 1.43 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.68

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + OFK Levski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

OFK Levski scores more

52%

level

24%

Botev Lukovit scores more

23%

OFK Levski at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "OFK Levski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff