OFK Beograd vs TSC Backa Topola — Super Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 8+ matches
OFK Beograd29%
TSC Backa Topola47%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
TSC Backa Topola creates 32% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
OFK Beograd ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
OFK Beograd at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.86 · 8 matches
TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.54 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
OFK Beograd attack 0.98 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.26
TSC Backa Topola attack 1.45 + OFK Beograd defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.66
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
TSC Backa Topola at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki NIS
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Mladost Lucani
Napredak
Vojvodina
Proleter Novi SAD
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Radnik Surdulica
FK Vozdovac
Macva
Backa
RAD
Dinamo Vranje
ZemunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
OFK Beograd host TSC Backa Topola on Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 12:00. The match is part of the Super Liga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: OFK Beograd vs TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola beat OFK Beograd 1-0 in Super Liga on December 21, 2025.
Goals: A. Todoroski (34').
OFK Beograd controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 17.
The match was played at Sportski Centar Fudbalskog saveza Srbije in Stara Pazova.