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OFK Beograd vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
10/21/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 13Omladinski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

OFK Beograd46%
×Draw29%
Mladost Novi Sad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Beograd
1.24
Mladost Novi Sad
0.84

OFK Beograd creates 48% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 55 away

creates per match

OFK Beograd
1.70
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

OFK Beograd
0.70
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

OFK Beograd+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Beograd ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

OFK Beograd or draw
75%
OFK Beograd or Mladost Novi Sad
71%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
54%

Winning margin

OFK Beograd wins by 2+
20%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

OFK Beograd 1+ goals
71%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
35%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
13%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
57%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
21%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
64%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Beograd at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Beograd attack 1.70 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.24

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + OFK Beograd defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

OFK Beograd scores more
46%
level
29%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
25%

OFK Beograd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFK Beograd vs Mladost Novi Sad

OFK Beograd beat Mladost Novi Sad 2-0 in Prva Liga on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Omladinski Stadion in Beograd.