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OFI vs Atromitos — Super League 1 2018

OFI
OFI
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atromitos
Atromitos
3/29/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Conference League Play-off Group - 1Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

OFI40%
×Draw27%
Atromitos33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFI
1.34
Atromitos
1.18

OFI creates 14% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 130 away

creates per match

OFI
1.27
Atromitos
1.08

allows per match

OFI
1.28
Atromitos
1.42

finishing

OFI+0.00on par
Atromitos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFI ↓

Atromitos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

OFI or draw
67%
OFI or Atromitos
73%
Draw or Atromitos
60%

Winning margin

OFI wins by 2+
19%
Atromitos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

OFI 1+ goals
74%
OFI 2+ goals
39%
OFI 3+ goals
15%
Atromitos 1+ goals
69%
Atromitos 2+ goals
33%
Atromitos 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

OFI (draw refunded)
55%
Atromitos (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFI at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 132 matches

Atromitos away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFI attack 1.27 + Atromitos defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atromitos attack 1.08 + OFI defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

OFI scores more
40%
level
27%
Atromitos scores more
33%

OFI at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "OFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFI vs Atromitos

Atromitos beat OFI 2-1 in Super League 1 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Heraklion.