Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OFI vs Asteras Tripolis — Super League 1 2018

OFI
OFI
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis
1/11/2026Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 16Pankritio Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

OFI42%
×Draw28%
Asteras Tripolis30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFI
1.31
Asteras Tripolis
1.06

OFI creates 24% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 131 away

creates per match

OFI
1.27
Asteras Tripolis
0.84

allows per match

OFI
1.28
Asteras Tripolis
1.36

finishing

OFI+0.00on par
Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFI ↓

Asteras Tripolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

OFI or draw
70%
OFI or Asteras Tripolis
72%
Draw or Asteras Tripolis
58%

Winning margin

OFI wins by 2+
19%
Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

OFI 1+ goals
73%
OFI 2+ goals
38%
OFI 3+ goals
14%
Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals
65%
Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals
29%
Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

OFI (draw refunded)
58%
Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFI at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 132 matches

Asteras Tripolis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFI attack 1.27 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 + OFI defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

OFI scores more
42%
level
28%
Asteras Tripolis scores more
30%

OFI at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "OFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFI vs Asteras Tripolis

OFI beat Asteras Tripolis 4-0 in Super League 1 on January 11, 2026.

The match was played at Pankritio Stadium in Heraklion.