OFI 0–2 Aris Thessalonikis: Result & Stats

OFI

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aris Thessalonikis

5/3/2026

Super League 1 · Conference League Group - 3Pankritio Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

OFI37%

×Draw28%

Aris Thessalonikis35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFIExpected goals in this matchAris Thessalonikis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.19

OFI

1.23

Aris Thessalonikis

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 137 away

1.27

creates per match

1.09

1.28

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

OFI

1.27

Aris Thessalonikis

1.09

allows per match

OFI

1.28

Aris Thessalonikis

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFI+0.00on par

Aris Thessalonikis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFI ↓

Aris Thessalonikis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

OFI or draw

65%

OFI or Aris Thessalonikis

72%

Draw or Aris Thessalonikis

63%

Winning margin

OFI wins by 2+

16%

Aris Thessalonikis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

OFI 1+ goals

71%

OFI 2+ goals

35%

OFI 3+ goals

13%

Aris Thessalonikis 1+ goals

70%

Aris Thessalonikis 2+ goals

33%

Aris Thessalonikis 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

OFI (draw refunded)

51%

Aris Thessalonikis (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFI at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 132 matches

Aris Thessalonikis away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFI attack 1.27 + Aris Thessalonikis defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.09 + OFI defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

OFI scores more

37%

level

28%

Aris Thessalonikis scores more

35%

OFI at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "OFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff