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Offenburger FV vs Denzlingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Offenburger FV
Offenburger FV
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Denzlingen
Denzlingen
6/1/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 34Karl-Heitz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Offenburger FV44%
×Draw22%
Denzlingen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Offenburger FV
1.97
Denzlingen
1.72

Offenburger FV creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Offenburger FV
1.50
Denzlingen
1.18

allows per match

Offenburger FV
2.26
Denzlingen
2.44

finishing

Offenburger FV+0.00on par
Denzlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Offenburger FV ↓

Denzlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Offenburger FV or draw
66%
Offenburger FV or Denzlingen
78%
Draw or Denzlingen
56%

Winning margin

Offenburger FV wins by 2+
24%
Denzlingen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Offenburger FV 1+ goals
86%
Offenburger FV 2+ goals
58%
Offenburger FV 3+ goals
31%
Denzlingen 1+ goals
82%
Denzlingen 2+ goals
51%
Denzlingen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)
56%
Denzlingen (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Offenburger FV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Denzlingen away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Offenburger FV attack 1.50 + Denzlingen defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.97

Denzlingen attack 1.18 + Offenburger FV defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Offenburger FV scores more
44%
level
22%
Denzlingen scores more
34%

Offenburger FV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Offenburger FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Offenburger FV 4–4 Denzlingen

Offenburger FV and Denzlingen drew 4-4 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Karl-Heitz-Stadion in Offenburg.