Offenburger FV 1–4 Bissingen: Result & Stats

Offenburger FV

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Bissingen

10/29/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 15Karl-Heitz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Offenburger FV38%

×Draw21%

Bissingen41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Offenburger FVExpected goals in this matchBissingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.96

Offenburger FV

1.89

Bissingen

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 93 away

1.50

creates per match

1.66

2.26

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Offenburger FV

1.50

Bissingen

1.66

allows per match

Offenburger FV

2.26

Bissingen

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Bissingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Offenburger FV ↓

Bissingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Offenburger FV or draw

59%

Offenburger FV or Bissingen

79%

Draw or Bissingen

62%

Winning margin

Offenburger FV wins by 2+

20%

Bissingen wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Offenburger FV 1+ goals

85%

Offenburger FV 2+ goals

56%

Offenburger FV 3+ goals

29%

Bissingen 1+ goals

86%

Bissingen 2+ goals

58%

Bissingen 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)

48%

Bissingen (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Offenburger FV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Bissingen away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.27 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Offenburger FV attack 1.50 + Bissingen defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.89

Bissingen attack 1.66 + Offenburger FV defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Offenburger FV scores more

38%

level

21%

Bissingen scores more

41%

Bissingen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff