OFC Oostzaan 0–2 Spakenburg: Result & Stats

OFC Oostzaan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Spakenburg

10/8/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 10Sportpark OFC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFC Oostzaan29%

×Draw22%

Spakenburg49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFC OostzaanExpected goals in this matchSpakenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

2.02

OFC Oostzaan

1.53

Spakenburg

2.02

Spakenburg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

1.24

creates per match

1.79

2.24

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan

1.24

Spakenburg

1.79

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan

2.24

Spakenburg

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Spakenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

Spakenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw

51%

OFC Oostzaan or Spakenburg

78%

Draw or Spakenburg

71%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+

14%

Spakenburg wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals

78%

OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals

45%

OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals

20%

Spakenburg 1+ goals

87%

Spakenburg 2+ goals

60%

Spakenburg 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)

38%

Spakenburg (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Spakenburg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.82 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.24 + Spakenburg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Spakenburg attack 1.79 + OFC Oostzaan defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more

29%

level

22%

Spakenburg scores more

49%

Spakenburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff