OFC Oostzaan 1–2 Quick Boys: Result & Stats

OFC Oostzaan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Quick Boys

11/12/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 14Sportpark OFC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFC Oostzaan25%

×Draw22%

Quick Boys53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFC OostzaanExpected goals in this matchQuick Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.96

OFC Oostzaan

1.29

Quick Boys

1.96

Quick Boys creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

1.24

creates per match

1.68

2.24

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan

1.24

Quick Boys

1.68

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan

2.24

Quick Boys

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Quick Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

Quick Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw

47%

OFC Oostzaan or Quick Boys

78%

Draw or Quick Boys

75%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+

10%

Quick Boys wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals

72%

OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals

37%

OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals

14%

Quick Boys 1+ goals

86%

Quick Boys 2+ goals

58%

Quick Boys 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)

32%

Quick Boys (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Quick Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.33 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.24 + Quick Boys defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Quick Boys attack 1.68 + OFC Oostzaan defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more

25%

level

22%

Quick Boys scores more

53%

Quick Boys at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Quick Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff