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OFC Oostzaan vs Kozakken Boys — Tweede Divisie 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys
9/24/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 8Sportpark OFC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFC Oostzaan32%
×Draw23%
Kozakken Boys44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
1.43
Kozakken Boys
1.71

Kozakken Boys creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 87 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.24
Kozakken Boys
1.17

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.24
Kozakken Boys
1.62

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

Kozakken Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
56%
OFC Oostzaan or Kozakken Boys
77%
Draw or Kozakken Boys
68%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
15%
Kozakken Boys wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
76%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
42%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
17%
Kozakken Boys 1+ goals
82%
Kozakken Boys 2+ goals
51%
Kozakken Boys 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
42%
Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Kozakken Boys away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.24 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kozakken Boys attack 1.17 + OFC Oostzaan defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
32%
level
23%
Kozakken Boys scores more
44%

Kozakken Boys at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kozakken Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFC Oostzaan vs Kozakken Boys

Kozakken Boys beat OFC Oostzaan 4-2 in Tweede Divisie on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark OFC in Oostzaan.