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OFC Oostzaan vs JOS Watergraafsmeer — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
CANC
13:30
JOS Watergraafsmeer
JOS Watergraafsmeer
11/1/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 9Sportpark OFC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

OFC Oostzaan59%
×Draw21%
JOS Watergraafsmeer20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
2.12
JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.15

OFC Oostzaan creates 84% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.00
JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.27

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.03
JOS Watergraafsmeer
2.24

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
JOS Watergraafsmeer+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

JOS Watergraafsmeer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
80%
OFC Oostzaan or JOS Watergraafsmeer
79%
Draw or JOS Watergraafsmeer
41%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
36%
JOS Watergraafsmeer wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
88%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
62%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
35%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 1+ goals
68%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 2+ goals
32%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
75%
JOS Watergraafsmeer (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

JOS Watergraafsmeer away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.24 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 2.00 + JOS Watergraafsmeer defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.12

JOS Watergraafsmeer attack 1.27 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
59%
level
21%
JOS Watergraafsmeer scores more
20%

OFC Oostzaan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "OFC Oostzaan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: OFC Oostzaan host JOS Watergraafsmeer

November 1, 2020: OFC Oostzaan take on JOS Watergraafsmeer in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

OFC Oostzaan host JOS Watergraafsmeer at Sportpark OFC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.