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OFC Oostzaan vs Hollandia — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
FT
3 – 5
HT: 3 – 1
Hollandia
Hollandia
4/16/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 25Sportpark OFC veld 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

OFC Oostzaan58%
×Draw22%
Hollandia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
1.98
Hollandia
1.09

OFC Oostzaan creates 82% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 20 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.00
Hollandia
1.15

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.03
Hollandia
1.95

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
Hollandia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

Hollandia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
79%
OFC Oostzaan or Hollandia
78%
Draw or Hollandia
42%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
34%
Hollandia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
86%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
59%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
31%
Hollandia 1+ goals
66%
Hollandia 2+ goals
30%
Hollandia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
74%
Hollandia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Hollandia away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 2.00 + Hollandia defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Hollandia attack 1.15 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
58%
level
22%
Hollandia scores more
21%

OFC Oostzaan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "OFC Oostzaan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: OFC Oostzaan 3–5 Hollandia

Hollandia beat OFC Oostzaan 5-3 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark OFC veld 2 in Oostzaan.