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OFC Oostzaan vs HHC — Tweede Divisie 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
HHC
HHC
9/10/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 4Sportpark OFC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFC Oostzaan27%
×Draw23%
HHC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
1.34
HHC
1.89

HHC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 100 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.24
HHC
1.53

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.24
HHC
1.44

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
HHC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

HHC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
50%
OFC Oostzaan or HHC
77%
Draw or HHC
73%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
12%
HHC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
74%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
39%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
15%
HHC 1+ goals
85%
HHC 2+ goals
56%
HHC 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
35%
HHC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

HHC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.24 + HHC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

HHC attack 1.53 + OFC Oostzaan defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
27%
level
23%
HHC scores more
50%

HHC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFC Oostzaan vs HHC

HHC beat OFC Oostzaan 5-1 in Tweede Divisie on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark OFC in Oostzaan.