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OFC Oostzaan vs FC Lienden — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
FT
0 – 1
FC Lienden
FC Lienden
11/3/2019Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 10Sportpark OFC (Oostzaan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

OFC Oostzaan64%
×Draw21%
FC Lienden16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
2.05
FC Lienden
0.91

OFC Oostzaan creates 125% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 9 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.00
FC Lienden
0.78

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.03
FC Lienden
2.11

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
FC Lienden+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

FC Lienden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
84%
OFC Oostzaan or FC Lienden
79%
Draw or FC Lienden
36%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
39%
FC Lienden wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
87%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
61%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
33%
FC Lienden 1+ goals
60%
FC Lienden 2+ goals
23%
FC Lienden 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
80%
FC Lienden (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

FC Lienden away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 2.00 + FC Lienden defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

FC Lienden attack 0.78 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
64%
level
21%
FC Lienden scores more
16%

OFC Oostzaan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "OFC Oostzaan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFC Oostzaan vs FC Lienden

FC Lienden beat OFC Oostzaan 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark OFC (Oostzaan).