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OFC Oostzaan vs EVV — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
CANC
00:00
EVV
EVV
3/15/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 25Sportpark OFC (Oostzaan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

OFC Oostzaan55%
×Draw23%
EVV22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
1.77
EVV
1.03

OFC Oostzaan creates 72% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.00
EVV
1.03

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.03
EVV
1.53

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
EVV+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

EVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
78%
OFC Oostzaan or EVV
77%
Draw or EVV
45%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
31%
EVV wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
83%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
53%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
26%
EVV 1+ goals
64%
EVV 2+ goals
28%
EVV 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
71%
EVV (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

EVV away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 2.00 + EVV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

EVV attack 1.03 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
55%
level
23%
EVV scores more
22%

OFC Oostzaan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "OFC Oostzaan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFC Oostzaan vs EVV — Match Preview

OFC Oostzaan face EVV on March 15, 2020 in this Derde Divisie - Sunday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

OFC Oostzaan host EVV at Sportpark OFC (Oostzaan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.