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OFC Oostzaan vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
FT
3 – 1
DEM
DEM
10/10/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 8Sportpark OFC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

OFC Oostzaan52%
×Draw24%
DEM24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
1.76
DEM
1.13

OFC Oostzaan creates 56% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.00
DEM
1.23

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.03
DEM
1.52

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
76%
OFC Oostzaan or DEM
76%
Draw or DEM
48%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
29%
DEM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
83%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
52%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
26%
DEM 1+ goals
68%
DEM 2+ goals
31%
DEM 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
68%
DEM (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 2.00 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.76

DEM attack 1.23 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
52%
level
24%
DEM scores more
24%

OFC Oostzaan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "OFC Oostzaan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: OFC Oostzaan 3–1 DEM

OFC Oostzaan beat DEM 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark OFC in Oostzaan.