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OFC Oostzaan vs ADO '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
CANC
00:00
ADO '20
ADO '20
5/10/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 32Sportpark OFC (Oostzaan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

OFC Oostzaan46%
×Draw24%
ADO '2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFC Oostzaan
1.72
ADO '20
1.37

OFC Oostzaan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

OFC Oostzaan
2.00
ADO '20
1.71

allows per match

OFC Oostzaan
1.03
ADO '20
1.44

finishing

OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par
ADO '20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFC Oostzaan ↓

ADO '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

OFC Oostzaan or draw
69%
OFC Oostzaan or ADO '20
76%
Draw or ADO '20
54%

Winning margin

OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
24%
ADO '20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
82%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
51%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
25%
ADO '20 1+ goals
75%
ADO '20 2+ goals
40%
ADO '20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
60%
ADO '20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFC Oostzaan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

ADO '20 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFC Oostzaan attack 2.00 + ADO '20 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

ADO '20 attack 1.71 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

OFC Oostzaan scores more
46%
level
24%
ADO '20 scores more
31%

OFC Oostzaan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "OFC Oostzaan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFC Oostzaan vs ADO '20 — Match Preview

OFC Oostzaan face ADO '20 on May 10, 2020 in this Derde Divisie - Sunday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

OFC Oostzaan host ADO '20 at Sportpark OFC (Oostzaan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.