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Oeste vs Santo André — Copa Paulista 2026

Oeste
Oeste
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santo André
Santo André
Rafael Reis 26'
7/14/2025Copa PaulistaCopa Paulista · 1st Round - 5Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oeste54%
×Draw24%
Santo André22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste
1.67
Santo André
0.96

Oeste creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Oeste
0.83
Santo André
0.75

allows per match

Oeste
1.17
Santo André
2.50

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par
Santo André+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Santo André →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oeste or draw
78%
Oeste or Santo André
76%
Draw or Santo André
46%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+
29%
Santo André wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals
81%
Oeste 2+ goals
50%
Oeste 3+ goals
23%
Santo André 1+ goals
62%
Santo André 2+ goals
25%
Santo André 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)
71%
Santo André (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Santo André away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.83 + Santo André defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Santo André attack 0.75 + Oeste defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oeste scores more
54%
level
24%
Santo André scores more
22%

Oeste at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Rafael Reis
78'
Yuri Santana
Oeste
Santo
Lelé
Manager: Lelé
Gilson Kleina
Manager: Gilson Kleina

Copa Paulista: Oeste 0–1 Santo André

Santo André beat Oeste 1-0 in Copa Paulista on July 14, 2025.

Goals: Rafael Reis (26').

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri.