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Oeste vs Figueirense — Serie B 2026

Oeste
Oeste
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Figueirense
Figueirense
11/2/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 34Arena Barueri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Oeste40%
×Draw30%
Figueirense30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste
1.15
Figueirense
0.94

Oeste creates 22% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 50 away

creates per match

Oeste
0.96
Figueirense
0.88

allows per match

Oeste
1.00
Figueirense
1.34

finishing

Oeste+0.00on par
Figueirense+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste ↓

Figueirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oeste or draw
70%
Oeste or Figueirense
70%
Draw or Figueirense
60%

Winning margin

Oeste wins by 2+
17%
Figueirense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oeste 1+ goals
68%
Oeste 2+ goals
32%
Oeste 3+ goals
11%
Figueirense 1+ goals
61%
Figueirense 2+ goals
24%
Figueirense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oeste (draw refunded)
58%
Figueirense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 68 matches

Figueirense away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste attack 0.96 + Figueirense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Figueirense attack 0.88 + Oeste defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oeste scores more
40%
level
30%
Figueirense scores more
30%

Oeste at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Marciel
58'
Rodrigo Souza
61'
Zé Antônio
63'
Edilson← Rodrigo Souza
67'
Bruno Lopes← Marciel
67'
Juninho← Felipe Amorim
73'
Raphael Indio← Felipe Cruz
77'
Daniel Costa← Renan Mota
83'
Betinho
88'
André Santos← Gustavo Ferrareis

Possession

58%Oeste

Shots

12Oeste

Pass accuracy

55%Oeste

Statistics

OesteFigueirense
Overview
58%Possession42%
12Total Shots6
4Corners2
25Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots6
0On Target3
10Off Target1
2Blocked2
3Inside Box5
9Outside Box1
Passing
58%Possession42%
432Total Passes308
355Accurate Passes205
82%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
25Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Oeste vs Figueirense

Oeste and Figueirense drew 0-0 in Serie B on November 2, 2018.

Oeste controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Arena Barueri in Barueri.