Oeste U20 3–0 União São João U20: Result & Stats

Oeste U20

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

União São João U20

Unknown 68', 56', 7'

8/2/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 5Centro de Treinamento Vila Porto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Oeste U2052%

×Draw25%

União São João U2023%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oeste U20Expected goals in this matchUnião São João U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.93

Oeste U20

1.56

União São João U20

0.93

Oeste U20 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.76

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Oeste U20

1.76

União São João U20

1.00

allows per match

Oeste U20

0.86

União São João U20

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste U20+0.00on par

União São João U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste U20 ↓

União São João U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oeste U20 or draw

77%

Oeste U20 or União São João U20

75%

Draw or União São João U20

48%

Winning margin

Oeste U20 wins by 2+

27%

União São João U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Oeste U20 1+ goals

79%

Oeste U20 2+ goals

46%

Oeste U20 3+ goals

21%

União São João U20 1+ goals

61%

União São João U20 2+ goals

24%

União São João U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oeste U20 (draw refunded)

70%

União São João U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste U20 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

União São João U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste U20 attack 1.76 + União São João U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Oeste U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oeste U20 scores more

52%

level

25%

União São João U20 scores more

23%

Oeste U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

56'

68'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff