Oeste U20 1–1 Sertãozinho U20: Result & Stats

Oeste U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sertãozinho U20

L. Felipe 52'

Unknown 14'

7/19/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 3Centro de Treinamento Vila Porto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Oeste U2058%

×Draw23%

Sertãozinho U2020%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oeste U20Expected goals in this matchSertãozinho U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.99

Oeste U20

1.86

Sertãozinho U20

0.99

Oeste U20 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.76

creates per match

1.13

0.86

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Oeste U20

1.76

Sertãozinho U20

1.13

allows per match

Oeste U20

0.86

Sertãozinho U20

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste U20+0.00on par

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste U20 ↓

Sertãozinho U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Oeste U20 or draw

80%

Oeste U20 or Sertãozinho U20

77%

Draw or Sertãozinho U20

42%

Winning margin

Oeste U20 wins by 2+

33%

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Oeste U20 1+ goals

84%

Oeste U20 2+ goals

55%

Oeste U20 3+ goals

28%

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals

63%

Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals

26%

Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oeste U20 (draw refunded)

74%

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste U20 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Sertãozinho U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste U20 attack 1.76 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sertãozinho U20 attack 1.13 + Oeste U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Oeste U20 scores more

58%

level

23%

Sertãozinho U20 scores more

20%

Oeste U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

52'

L. Felipe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff