Oeste U20 1–0 Mauá U20: Result & Stats

Oeste U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mauá U20

Hytalo 4' (pen)

5/2/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Centro de Treinamento Vila Porto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Oeste U2062%

×Draw23%

Mauá U2015%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oeste U20Expected goals in this matchMauá U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.73

Oeste U20

1.77

Mauá U20

0.73

Oeste U20 creates 142% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.76

creates per match

0.61

0.86

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Oeste U20

1.76

Mauá U20

0.61

allows per match

Oeste U20

0.86

Mauá U20

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oeste U20+0.00on par

Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oeste U20 or draw

85%

Oeste U20 or Mauá U20

77%

Draw or Mauá U20

38%

Winning margin

Oeste U20 wins by 2+

36%

Mauá U20 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Oeste U20 1+ goals

83%

Oeste U20 2+ goals

53%

Oeste U20 3+ goals

26%

Mauá U20 1+ goals

52%

Mauá U20 2+ goals

17%

Mauá U20 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Oeste U20 (draw refunded)

81%

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste U20 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste U20 attack 1.76 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + Oeste U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Oeste U20 scores more

62%

level

23%

Mauá U20 scores more

15%

Oeste U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

HytaloPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff