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Oeste U20 vs Ibrachina U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Oeste U20
Oeste U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
P. de Macedo 43'
7/9/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Oeste U2040%
×Draw25%
Ibrachina U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste U20
1.46
Ibrachina U20
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

Oeste U20
1.76
Ibrachina U20
1.83

allows per match

Oeste U20
0.86
Ibrachina U20
1.17

finishing

Oeste U20+0.00on par
Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste U20 ↓

Ibrachina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oeste U20 or draw
65%
Oeste U20 or Ibrachina U20
75%
Draw or Ibrachina U20
60%

Winning margin

Oeste U20 wins by 2+
19%
Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oeste U20 1+ goals
77%
Oeste U20 2+ goals
43%
Oeste U20 3+ goals
18%
Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
74%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
39%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Oeste U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste U20 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Ibrachina U20 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste U20 attack 1.76 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ibrachina U20 attack 1.83 + Oeste U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oeste U20 scores more
40%
level
25%
Ibrachina U20 scores more
35%

Oeste U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
P. de Macedo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oeste U20 vs Ibrachina U20

Ibrachina U20 beat Oeste U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 9, 2026.

Goals: P. de Macedo (43').