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Oeste U20 vs Clube Vital U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Oeste U20
Oeste U20
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Clube Vital U20
Clube Vital U20
L. Trajano 65'
L. Alvim 58'
R. Mendes 54'
Heric Gustavo 47'
L. Lima 6'
L. Sobrinho 3'
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Centro de Treinamento Vila Porto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oeste U2075%
×Draw15%
Clube Vital U2010%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste U20
2.78
Clube Vital U20
0.93

Oeste U20 creates 199% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oeste U20
1.76
Clube Vital U20
1.00

allows per match

Oeste U20
0.86
Clube Vital U20
3.80

finishing

Oeste U20+0.00on par
Clube Vital U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 71Under: 2971%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste U20 ↓

Clube Vital U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Oeste U20 or draw
90%
Oeste U20 or Clube Vital U20
85%
Draw or Clube Vital U20
25%

Winning margin

Oeste U20 wins by 2+
54%
Clube Vital U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Oeste U20 1+ goals
94%
Oeste U20 2+ goals
76%
Oeste U20 3+ goals
51%
Clube Vital U20 1+ goals
61%
Clube Vital U20 2+ goals
24%
Clube Vital U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oeste U20 (draw refunded)
88%
Clube Vital U20 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste U20 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Clube Vital U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste U20 attack 1.76 + Clube Vital U20 defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.78

Clube Vital U20 attack 1.00 + Oeste U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Oeste U20 scores more
75%
level
15%
Clube Vital U20 scores more
10%

Oeste U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. Sobrinho
6'
L. Lima
47'
Heric Gustavo
54'
R. Mendes
58'
L. Alvim
65'
L. Trajano
85'
A. Caires
85'
A. Caires

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oeste U20 vs Clube Vital U20

Oeste U20 beat Clube Vital U20 6-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: L. Sobrinho (3'), L. Lima (6'), Heric Gustavo (47'), R. Mendes (54'), L. Alvim (58'), L. Trajano (65').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Vila Porto in Barueri, São Paulo.