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Oeste U20 vs AC Guaratinguetá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Oeste U20
Oeste U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AC Guaratinguetá U20
AC Guaratinguetá U20
L. Rodriguez 71'
D. Kauan 52'
L. Felipe de Abreu Trajano 3'
J. Vitor 73'
Luan 20'
7/11/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 11Centro de Treinamento Vila Porto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oeste U2065%
×Draw22%
AC Guaratinguetá U2013%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oeste U20
1.82
AC Guaratinguetá U20
0.68

Oeste U20 creates 168% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Oeste U20
1.76
AC Guaratinguetá U20
0.50

allows per match

Oeste U20
0.86
AC Guaratinguetá U20
1.88

finishing

Oeste U20+0.00on par
AC Guaratinguetá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oeste U20 ↓

AC Guaratinguetá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oeste U20 or draw
87%
Oeste U20 or AC Guaratinguetá U20
78%
Draw or AC Guaratinguetá U20
35%

Winning margin

Oeste U20 wins by 2+
38%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oeste U20 1+ goals
84%
Oeste U20 2+ goals
54%
Oeste U20 3+ goals
27%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 1+ goals
49%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 2+ goals
15%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Oeste U20 (draw refunded)
83%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oeste U20 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

AC Guaratinguetá U20 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oeste U20 attack 1.76 + AC Guaratinguetá U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

AC Guaratinguetá U20 attack 0.50 + Oeste U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Oeste U20 scores more
65%
level
22%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 scores more
13%

Oeste U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. Felipe de Abreu Trajano
20'
Luan
52'
D. Kauan
71'
L. Rodriguez
73'
J. Vitor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Oeste U20 3–2 AC Guaratinguetá U20

Oeste U20 beat AC Guaratinguetá U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on July 11, 2025.

Goals: L. Felipe de Abreu Trajano (3'), Luan (20'), D. Kauan (52'), L. Rodriguez (71'), J. Vitor (73').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Vila Porto in Barueri, São Paulo.