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Oedt vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Oedt
Oedt
FT
3 – 2
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
3/19/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 18Transdanubia Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Oedt68%
×Draw18%
Union St. Florian15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oedt
2.48
Union St. Florian
1.06

Oedt creates 134% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 29 away

creates per match

Oedt
2.95
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

Oedt
1.01
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

Oedt+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oedt ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Oedt or draw
85%
Oedt or Union St. Florian
82%
Draw or Union St. Florian
32%

Winning margin

Oedt wins by 2+
46%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oedt 1+ goals
92%
Oedt 2+ goals
70%
Oedt 3+ goals
44%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
65%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
29%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Oedt (draw refunded)
82%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oedt at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oedt attack 2.95 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + Oedt defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Oedt scores more
68%
level
18%
Union St. Florian scores more
15%

Oedt at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Oedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oedt vs Union St. Florian

Oedt beat Union St. Florian 3-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Transdanubia Sportanlage in Traun/Oedt.