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Oedt vs Stadl-Paura — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Oedt
Oedt
FT
8 – 0
Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
10/22/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 12Transdanubia Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Oedt97%
×Draw2%
Stadl-Paura1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oedt
5.47
Stadl-Paura
0.51

Oedt creates 973% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 7 away

creates per match

Oedt
2.95
Stadl-Paura
0.00

allows per match

Oedt
1.01
Stadl-Paura
8.00

finishing

Oedt+0.00on par
Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oedt ↓

Stadl-Paura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (14%) · grid covers 52% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
78%22%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Oedt or draw
99%
Oedt or Stadl-Paura
98%
Draw or Stadl-Paura
3%

Winning margin

Oedt wins by 2+
90%
Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Oedt 1+ goals
99%
Oedt 2+ goals
96%
Oedt 3+ goals
87%
Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
40%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
9%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Oedt (draw refunded)
99%
Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oedt at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.00, concedes 8.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oedt attack 2.95 + Stadl-Paura defence 8.00 → ÷2 → 5.47

Stadl-Paura attack 0.00 + Oedt defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Oedt scores more
97%
level
2%
Stadl-Paura scores more
1%

Oedt at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Oedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Oedt 8–0 Stadl-Paura

Oedt beat Stadl-Paura 8-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Transdanubia Sportanlage in Traun/Oedt.