Oedt vs Pöttinger Grieskirchen

Oedt

CANC

00:00

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

4/18/2020

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 22Transdanubia Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Oedt68%

×Draw17%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OedtExpected goals in this matchPöttinger Grieskirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.15

Oedt

2.62

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.15

Oedt creates 128% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 29 away

2.95

creates per match

1.28

1.01

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Oedt

2.95

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.28

allows per match

Oedt

1.01

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oedt+0.00on par

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oedt ↓

Pöttinger Grieskirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Oedt or draw

85%

Oedt or Pöttinger Grieskirchen

83%

Draw or Pöttinger Grieskirchen

32%

Winning margin

Oedt wins by 2+

47%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Oedt 1+ goals

93%

Oedt 2+ goals

73%

Oedt 3+ goals

48%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals

68%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals

32%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oedt (draw refunded)

82%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oedt at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oedt attack 2.95 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.62

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.28 + Oedt defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Oedt scores more

68%

level

17%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more

15%

Oedt at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Oedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff