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Oedt vs Grün Weiß Micheldorf — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Oedt
Oedt
FT
1 – 2
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
3/2/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 16Transdanubia Sportanlage Oedt Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Oedt66%
×Draw18%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oedt
2.54
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.19

Oedt creates 113% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 89 away

creates per match

Oedt
2.95
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.36

allows per match

Oedt
1.01
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
2.12

finishing

Oedt+0.00on par
Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oedt ↓

Grün Weiß Micheldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Oedt or draw
84%
Oedt or Grün Weiß Micheldorf
82%
Draw or Grün Weiß Micheldorf
34%

Winning margin

Oedt wins by 2+
44%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Oedt 1+ goals
92%
Oedt 2+ goals
72%
Oedt 3+ goals
46%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals
70%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals
33%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oedt (draw refunded)
80%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oedt at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.12 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oedt attack 2.95 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.54

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.36 + Oedt defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Oedt scores more
66%
level
18%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more
16%

Oedt at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Oedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oedt vs Grün Weiß Micheldorf

Grün Weiß Micheldorf beat Oedt 2-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Transdanubia Sportanlage Oedt Kunstrasen in Traun/Oedt.