Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oedt vs Donau Linz — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Oedt
Oedt
FT
2 – 3
Donau Linz
Donau Linz
10/12/2019Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 11Transdanubia Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Oedt75%
×Draw14%
Donau Linz11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oedt
2.91
Donau Linz
1.02

Oedt creates 185% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 30 away

creates per match

Oedt
2.95
Donau Linz
1.03

allows per match

Oedt
1.01
Donau Linz
2.87

finishing

Oedt+0.00on par
Donau Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oedt ↓

Donau Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Oedt or draw
89%
Oedt or Donau Linz
86%
Draw or Donau Linz
25%

Winning margin

Oedt wins by 2+
55%
Donau Linz wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Oedt 1+ goals
94%
Oedt 2+ goals
78%
Oedt 3+ goals
54%
Donau Linz 1+ goals
64%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
27%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oedt (draw refunded)
88%
Donau Linz (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oedt at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

Donau Linz away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oedt attack 2.95 + Donau Linz defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.91

Donau Linz attack 1.03 + Oedt defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Oedt scores more
75%
level
14%
Donau Linz scores more
11%

Oedt at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Oedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oedt vs Donau Linz

Donau Linz beat Oedt 3-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Transdanubia Sportanlage in Traun/Oedt.