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Donau Linz vs Oedt — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Donau Linz
Donau Linz
CANC
18:00
Oedt
Oedt
11/6/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 14LINZ AG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Donau Linz29%
×Draw22%
Oedt48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau Linz
1.45
Oedt
1.91

Oedt creates 32% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 73 away

creates per match

Donau Linz
1.59
Oedt
2.10

allows per match

Donau Linz
1.72
Oedt
1.30

finishing

Donau Linz+0.00on par
Oedt+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau Linz ↓

Oedt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Donau Linz or draw
52%
Donau Linz or Oedt
78%
Draw or Oedt
71%

Winning margin

Donau Linz wins by 2+
13%
Oedt wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Donau Linz 1+ goals
77%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
42%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
18%
Oedt 1+ goals
85%
Oedt 2+ goals
57%
Oedt 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Donau Linz (draw refunded)
38%
Oedt (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau Linz at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Oedt away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.30 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau Linz attack 1.59 + Oedt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Oedt attack 2.10 + Donau Linz defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Donau Linz scores more
29%
level
22%
Oedt scores more
48%

Oedt at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Donau Linz face Oedt (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)

Landesliga - Oberosterreich returns with Donau Linz hosting Oedt. Match starts November 6, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Donau Linz host Oedt at LINZ AG Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.