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Oedt vs Bad Schallerbach — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Oedt
Oedt
FT
4 – 0
Bad Schallerbach
Bad Schallerbach
3/16/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 18Transdanubia Sportanlage Oedt Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Oedt62%
×Draw19%
Bad Schallerbach19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oedt
2.39
Bad Schallerbach
1.25

Oedt creates 91% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 75 away

creates per match

Oedt
2.95
Bad Schallerbach
1.48

allows per match

Oedt
1.01
Bad Schallerbach
1.83

finishing

Oedt+0.00on par
Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oedt ↓

Bad Schallerbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Oedt or draw
81%
Oedt or Bad Schallerbach
81%
Draw or Bad Schallerbach
38%

Winning margin

Oedt wins by 2+
40%
Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oedt 1+ goals
91%
Oedt 2+ goals
69%
Oedt 3+ goals
42%
Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals
71%
Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals
36%
Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oedt (draw refunded)
77%
Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oedt at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

Bad Schallerbach away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.83 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oedt attack 2.95 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.39

Bad Schallerbach attack 1.48 + Oedt defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Oedt scores more
62%
level
19%
Bad Schallerbach scores more
19%

Oedt at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Oedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oedt vs Bad Schallerbach

Oedt beat Bad Schallerbach 4-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Transdanubia Sportanlage Oedt Kunstrasen in Traun/Oedt.