Odra Wodzislaw vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — III Liga - Group 3 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Odra Wodzislaw30%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała49%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 32% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over71
- Under29
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Odra Wodzislaw ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches
Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.58
Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.97 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Ruch Chorzów
Polonia Bytom
Ślęza Wrocław
Pawłowice Śląskie
Zagłębie Lubin IIRekord Bielsko-Biała
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Stal Brzeg
Górnik Zabrze II
Lechia Zielona Góra
Miedź Legnica II
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Kluczbork
Warta Gorzów
Piast Żmigród
Gać Oława
ROW Rybnik
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia NysaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Odra Wodzislaw host Rekord Bielsko-Biała on Saturday, 25 September 2021 at 15:00. The match is part of the III Liga - Group 3 2020/2021 season.
III Liga - Group 3: Odra Wodzislaw 0–2 Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała beat Odra Wodzislaw 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 25, 2021.
The match was played at Gosław Sports Center in Wodzisław Śląski.