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Odra Wodzislaw vs Pawłowice Śląskie — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
8/6/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw39%
×Draw23%
Pawłowice Śląskie38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.73
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.20

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.79

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
62%
Odra Wodzislaw or Pawłowice Śląskie
77%
Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie
61%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
20%
Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
82%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
52%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
25%
Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
82%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
50%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
51%
Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
39%
level
23%
Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
38%

Odra Wodzislaw at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Odra Wodzislaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Wodzislaw vs Pawłowice Śląskie

Odra Wodzislaw and Pawłowice Śląskie drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.